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Abe Othman
Head of Data Science, AngelList
All articles by Matt
Do Startup Valuations Matter for Investment Returns?
What AngelList data says about how relative deal valuations affect investment returns.
Sep 07, 2023
How Far Will Early-Stage Valuations Fall?
Forecasting when the early-stage venture market will begin to recover using historical data.
Jul 13, 2023
After 18 Months, Your Investment Probably Isn’t Getting Marked Up
How markups can predict the outcome of a venture investment on a very short time horizon.
May 12, 2023
What Happens to the Typical AngelList SPV Investment?
Apr 25, 2023
When Can We Expect Venture Performance to Bounce Back?
AngelList data on lagged market correlations suggest VC recovery may be delayed until 2024.
Mar 21, 2023
Forecasting a Return to Venture Normalcy
The return of pre-pandemic VC performance?
Jun 13, 2022
How Volatile is Late-Stage VC?
Comparing late-stage investing to public markets investing.
May 26, 2022
How Much Can You Lose on a Failed Startup Investment?
Examining the return on money-losing deals on AngelList.
Apr 15, 2022
Solo Capitalists Are Gaining on Traditional Venture Firms
Solo GPs increasingly have among the best markup rates on AngelList.
Nov 16, 2021
How Does a Founder's Alma Mater Impact Their Startup's Markup Rate?
Ranking colleges by the markup rate of their alumni’s startups.
Aug 11, 2021
What Percentage of AngelList Seed-Stage Startups Become Unicorns?
We analyzed over 2,600 seed-stage startup investments made on AngelList dating back to 2013 to determine the likelihood of any startup achieving unicorn status today.
Jul 16, 2021
Startups in Emerging Tech Hubs Are Growing Fast
Startups based in Austin, Seattle, Denver, Portland, Brooklyn, Nashville, Pittsburgh, and Miami have strong IRRs and rapidly increasing deal volume on AngelList.
May 04, 2021
Top VC Firms Don’t Outperform the Broader Market at Seed
There’s no difference in probability of reaching Series A based on whether or not your seed round has a top VC.
Apr 16, 2021
Q4 2020 Was the Best Quarter on Record for Early-Stage Startups
80% of startups that changed valuations in Q4 were marked up.
Jan 25, 2021
Correlation Between GP Experience and Fund Performance
Do the funds of first-time managers perform better or worse than experienced managers?
Dec 07, 2020
Q3 2020 Saw a Rebound in Early-Stage Venture Activity
Early-stage venture activity rebounded after a tumultuous Q2.
Oct 22, 2020
What We’re Seeing in Early-Stage VC So Far in 2020
Valuation changes of our 3,000+ seasoned investments give us close-in visibility.
Sep 03, 2020
What AngelList Data Says About Power-Law Returns In Venture Capital
Early-stage investing is an asymmetric bet.
Jun 18, 2020
The AngelList VC Fund Performance Calculator Brings Transparency to Venture Capital
We solved the sample size problem that has held back VC fund benchmarking, improving precision and accuracy.
May 13, 2020
Innovation isn't Correlated with the Markets
AngelList data isn’t the only source that suggests venture returns and the public markets are uncorrelated.
May 12, 2020
How Portfolio Size Affects Early-Stage Venture Returns
We looked at more than 10,000 investor portfolios to solve a puzzle about venture capital: How can early-stage venture returns look great in aggregate but disappointing to individual investors at the same time?
Apr 23, 2020
What Happens After You Make a Seed Investment?
After about 40 months, exit probabilities begin to outweigh markup probabilities.
Mar 04, 2020
Startup Growth and Venture Returns: What We Found When We Analyzed Thousands of VC Deals
If you miss the best-performing seed investment, you will eventually be outperformed by someone who blindly invests in every credible deal.
Dec 11, 2019
Past Founders And Funders Make For Good Seed Investments
Spearhead opens applications for $1M angel funds
Oct 15, 2019
Should Seed Investors Follow On?
We ran 10,000 simulations to try to find out.
Sep 10, 2019
For Seed Funding, SAFEs Have Won Against Convertible Notes
Nearly 80% of the early-stage financing on AngelList is now done through SAFEs.
Aug 21, 2019
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